Conservatives face a massive challenge at the next general election because the present boundaries give Labour the advantage of an inbuilt majority. They need to win fewer votes in constituencies where they are strongest to secure a victory, while many Conservative strongholds are in spread out rural areas and rely on a higher turnout of supporters at the polls.
This video explains it perfectly, with Conservative Party Chairman Eric Pickles reminding his “chums†that while Conservatives in the last election won 35.7% of the vote, this only secured them 194 seats. Labour won 35.5% of the votes, and although they were outpolled, it gave them a huge majority and 286 seats.
We need to win 117 seats to lead the next government, which hasn’t been done since 1931. Eric’s latest “War Room Briefing†video explains the enormity of this challenge, and the huge energy and drive invested by Tories in their strategy to win back seats from Labour in the north of England. We desperately need a bigger swing than Margaret Thatcher achieved in 1979, something that has ever been done in our history. Not yet!
It is mind boggling to consider the huge mountain we have to climb; we have never started an election campaign in such a weak position, and at a time when the public has such little trust in politicians.
My view is that Conservatives will win, but with a small majority, and a second general election will be needed after a year to establish a strong and convincing lead.
Btw, I don’t like the downward sliding transitions on this video, do you? I find it irritating.
The rotten electoral system does favour Labour more than the Conservatives. The figures you quote I think are related to England only – in the UK overall Labour got about 35% of the vote and 55% of the seats. But the system massively favours both major parties over all the smaller parties. In a good year something like 42% or 43% would likely give you more than 50% of the seats so it’s a bit rich to complain about the electoral system unless you are willing to embrace proper proportional change.
Regarding the end of your post, I think you might be right. It may well be the case that the Conservatives only get a very small majority in May/June next year but what makes you think that in another election a year hence it would establish a strong and convincing lead? If anything, given the economic difficulties Cameron would face under those circumstances I would suggest if anything it would be likely to result in fewer seats for the Conservatives.