Today’s climate change debate couldn’t have been better timed, hot on the heels of the announcement that international politicians are agreeing on the need to tackle global warming, the need for them all to meet targets to reduce carbon emissions.
But the leading speakers, although buoyant at this news were unequivocal about the challenges ahead. Chris Rapley, Director of the British Antarctic Survey, predicts that carbon emissions will double by the middle of the century, that we need to reduce them to a tenth of that. He reckons it will take 100-300 years to stabilize global warming.
Paul Ekins, head of the Policy Studies Institute Environment Group, repeatedly described the political difficulties involved – the unpopular low-carbon nuclear power option, justifying airport expansion on one hand while promoting less carbon footprints on the other, the possibility of carbon credits, the need for more biofuels at the expense of less food from America being exported to developing countries, and the possible emergence of hydrogen driven transport. All these are extremely difficult issues to deal.
I found it disturbing to learn that America exports 70% of food it grows to lesser developed countries, but that it could use this food instead to develop its own biofuels industry, pushing up the price of food for these poorer countries. This is one of the many spin-offs that could happen, it could lead to increased hunger and poverty for those stricken countries.
David Buckland, from the Cape Farewell project which uses art and imagery to get the message across, (I couldn’t resist buying their fabulous book, you can see some of the pics at the top of the page), told me he has noticed the environmental changes during his visits to the Arctic over the last eight years, how the glaciers are retreating in an “unbelievable” way, as well the sea ice receding at an enormous level.
I managed to ask Chris Rapley some of the questions posted yesterday by bloggers. So CityUnslicker, who asked about the connection between climate change and solar activity, the answer was that if the sun varies, then the earth responds, but less than 10% is caused by solar variability.
And Jim, who asked about Dr Mann’s hockey stickâ€? graph and reference to the Mediaeval Warming period, the answer from Chris Rapley was “yes”, the credibility of the graph stands, that recent global warming is unprecedented over thousands of years, that the sceptics use this argument to shift the debate in areas which are irrelevant.
In answer Jackart’s question about why one half of the Antarctica is getting warmer and the other half colder, the reply was that that their temperature date is still not good enough to give a true picture.
It’s clear that an enormous culture change is needed, the challenges ahead are unfathomable, it’s uncharted territory. Do you wonder what kind of environment we will we have inn 1,000 years? Because we do not know the technology we will have in future years, the answer is hard to predict.
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