I believe I was the first political blogger in the UK to write about Barack Obama back in January 2007. Who could have guessed then that he would sensationally snatch the Democrat presidential nomination from Hillary Clinton, and is now only days from possibly being America’s first black president.
I asked then if he could end up in the White House, and I’ve asked the same question again today because it is hard to 
predict if he really has it in his lap, or whether voters will swing away from Obama and play the race card.
Also, when will we Brits have our first black Prime Minister?
Commenters on my blog in 2007 doubted that the Democrats or Obama would succeed. I thought it would be interesting to recap on those views. And I wonder what those bloggers think now:
Tim Roll-Pickering: He could do better than Hilary Clinton – yet another New England liberal isn’t going to make the breakthrough in regional polaristion that the Democrats need to make to win the White House. But does Obama really have what it takes to appeal to somewhere in the South, the Mountains and the Great Plains to win over the states needed?
cityunslicker: The Democrats are very unlikely to be able to beat Guliani or McCain in the next race, no matter how it looks now. I for one am pleased, as their protectionist agenda is the last thing a faltering economy will need.
Istanbul Tory: Obama is a media creation, portrayed as the second coming of Lincoln and John F Kennedy. He does not exist. He is a one term senator with no accomplishments to speak of. He has established himself as a left of centre politician 
in a country which isn’t left of centre. Anyone who thinks Obama would be able to win a presidential election is living in a politically correct fantasyland. Hopefully the Dems will pick a contender (even Hilary the Ice-Woman) and not a light-weight media celebrity.Even a wooden eco-warrior like Al Gore would be preferable to a man who hasn’t got a clue…Britain has learned to its cost what happens when you get the latter as leader.
All in all, Obama has the tone and substance of a Blair…the prosecution rests.
If the Democrats want to win, they should pick a moderate from the South, probably someone with a military background. Not Hilary not Obama. Despite his age, I think John Mccain will be elected president in 2008. Personally, I would prefer to see Rudy Giuliani in the Oval Office…but the republican base and party grass roots are not keen on him. Alas.
Welshcakes Limoncello: 
I’d not heard of him before so thanks, Ellee. I can’t see them voting for this man but it will be interesting, that’s for sure! I think it’s time for a woman president but I can’t bear the thought of the smug smirk on Bill’s face if he gets back into the White House as consort or whatever the term is.
The Curmudgeon: Obama is a Chicago guy. Hillary grew up in Park Ridge, just outside Chicago. Right now, Obamamania is sweeping the City and the media here has practically acclaimed him the winner without any need for an election.
He’ll certainly be the darling of the ABC crowd (Anybody But Clinton) when he does go national — but can he survive the scrutiny? The mud-slinging? Hillary believes it’s her turn.
And I know the media is ga-ga over the idea of a “black” 
president. Let me ask you a different question: Can America elect a president from the North?
Think on it: Although the Bush family hails from Connecticut (and still summers in Maine), Bush pater et fils are Texans. Clinton — Arkansas. Carter — Georgia.
You have to go back to Ronald Reagan of California to find a candidate from a state that stayed loyal to the Union in the Civil War beating a southerner. But Southern California is hardly the frozen North (the present frost damage to the citrus crops notwithstanding).
Before Reagan, there was Richard Nixon — who was practicing law in New York after losing the gubernatorial race in California in 1962. But he scampered back to sunny California as the nominee — and his opponent in 1968 was Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota. In 1972 it was George McGovern of South Dakota. And of course there was Nixon’s (pretty overtly racist) “Southern Strategy).
Before Nixon — LBJ of Texas.
You have to go back to John Fitzgerald Kennedy of Massachusetts to find our last truly ‘Northern’ president. (Gerald Ford doesn’t count; although from Michigan, he was never elected.)
I met Obama once; I have nothing bad to say about him — although there is the Tony Rezko angle still to be fully explored. My wife thinks he sounds too good to be true. But when was the last time we could say that with a straight face about anyone?
Jim: He must be in with a chance if he opposed the war from the outset, unless there are some dramatic improvements in the Iraq situation.
Unless the electors confuse his name with Osama.
Lee: I doubt very much that Obama will make it to the White House…this time around, anyway. I also doubt Hillary Clinton will be setting up home there again, either. I don’t believe the American people want another Clinton in the White House…and, what would she do with Bill, if this did occur?
James.R.Skinner: I’m not so sure Ellee. I’m currently studying in america at the moment, and majority of people claim 
there will be a female president before a black president. Will be interesting to see the results though.
Tejus Ramakrishnan: Yet I wonder.. Is Mr.Obama popular for the deeds he has accomplished or is it merely that he happens to be of African American Descent and in this politically correct day and age that seems to be a qualification by itself.. but again I am not familiar with Mr. Obama or his politics entirely..
antonio: hey people… as a foreigner who feels (like 95% of foreigners) that the US is making the world a racist and money-minded (oil minded) and dangerous world I would love to see Obama in the white house… not only does he represents the best option for the US but also the best possible american president for the rest of the world… ask anyone outside the US and NO… no one wants the world to be trethened by another Republican president.. we really wish you americans to embrace peace and idealism not war and racism…
I just pray Good helps the rest of the world by bringing Obama to the white house
[…] post by WP-AutoBlog Import var AdBrite_Title_Color = ‘0000FF’; var AdBrite_Text_Color = ‘000000’; var […]
Well America certainly seems more ready for a ‘black’ president than for a ‘woman’ president.
But I wonder of there isn’t a grounswell of black votes for the democrats
will there be enough groundswell from the republicans to keep a black president out of the white house – allowing McCain to win bt default.
Not likely I know, but God only knows how Bush made it in, and made it in for a second term.
Oh my, I just tried to send a rather long comment and it was eaten, somehow, by an error.
We’ll try again:
Yes, Mr. Obama will win but as much because he has become a symbol than on his own merit. Many in America, and I think important persons in the media, are enamored of the concept of a “black president.” As the first black candidate to attract significant support across racial lines, Mr. Obama has been embraced… but the media will remember that he is only a man soon after he is elected.
Maybe even on Election Night: That’s when Obama will have a rally in downtown Chicago. Admission is supposed to be by ticket only and tickets were only offered to supporters… but are now circulating on Craig’s List and eBay.
Attendance at the rally is to be limited to about 75,000, including credentialed media. However, authorities here are expecting as many as a million people to descend on the City center Tuesday night and the police blog that I follow is offering tips for its police-readers about how to cope with a riot.
And, with regard to my January 17, 2008 prognostication, obviously I can’t predict the future. If I could, I’d pick tonight’s Lotto numbers and retire to a life of ease.
But I don’t think I did so badly: I predicted that Obama would become the favorite of the Anybody But Clinton crowd and that Hillary would not go away quietly. I also said the local media had already inaugurated Mr. Obama, without the need for an election. That hasn’t changed and the national media has largely followed suit.
I also said that the Tony Rezko angle had not been fully explored.
Hillary tried… and got nowhere. Senator McCain has been trying too, but also without result. So the Rezko angle is still out there, and still not fully explored.
Yet Mr. Rezko has been reportedly singing like a canary to Federal prosecutors. A long stretch in the Chicago Metropolitan Correctional Center can apparently do wonders for one’s singing voice. And Mr. Rezko’s performance has been deemed sufficient, apparently, that his sentencing — which was supposed to take place this week — was postponed.
The first fruits of Mr. Rezko’s cooperation may be found in this week’s indictment of Springfield power broker William Cellini. Cellini was nominally a Republican, but his indictment stems from his fund raising efforts on behalf of Democratic Governor, Rod Blagojevich. Quoting the U.S. Attorney’s press release announcing the indictment: Cellini is charged with “conspiring with others to force Capri Capital, also a real estate investment firm, and Thomas Rosenberg, a principal and part owner of Capri, to raise or donate substantial political contributions for” Governor Blagojevich.
Blagojevich and Obama have little in common, other than that they’re both Illinois Democrats. That, and Tony Rezko took an active interest in their careers.
Ellee, it’s hard for me to convey just how corrupt Illinois politics is. Why, just this week, the $200,000 a year director of the Lincoln Library was fired… because of shoplifting charges. Even our scholars are crooked.
I’m going to quote to you from news articles appearing this week in the Chicago Sun-Times — a paper which has enthusiastically endorsed Mr. Obama. And yet, in Wednesday’s paper, the Watchdogs column reported on Obama’s friendship with Dr. Eric Whitaker, who reportedly is in line for a big Washington job should Obama win on Tuesday.
Obama and Whitaker met at Harvard. Whitaker was working at Chicago’s Cook County Hospital five years ago when then-State Sen. Obama “gave a ‘glowing’ reference for Whitaker to Tony Rezko, the now-convicted political fixer who helped Gov. Blagojevich find people to run state agencies. Blagojevich hired Whitaker to be the state’s public health director.”
As IDPH director, Dr. Whitaker did some apparently good things: “As state health chief, Whitaker spent millions on programs that used churches to educate minorities about AIDS, breast cancer and preparing for public health emergencies, a program hailed nationwide.”
But there was scandal, too: Whitaker “oversaw the budget of the Illinois Health Facilities Planning Board, which approves medical construction projects. Rezko and his associates controlled that board, which they used to solicit kickbacks and payoffs, according to testimony at Rezko’s trial.”
Whitaker is no longer a state employee. “Whitaker left the state payroll a year ago and joined Obama’s wife Michelle as a high-ranking executive at the University of Chicago Medical Center. When he was hired, U. of C. was seeking permission to expand its children’s hospital — one of five expansions the university sought from the state while Whitaker was health director. All were approved by the planning board. Whitaker and the U. of C. said he had nothing to do with those approvals.”
These kinds of amazing coincidences happen all the time in Illinois. And Whitaker has not been charged with any wrongdoing.
Two of Whitaker’s key staff people have gotten unhappy press recently as well. Whitaker’s former chief of staff, Quin Golden, moved to the University of Chicago in January — but she stayed on the state payroll until July. She was asked to be a consultant during the transition. So, while drawing a check from the university, she also received $72,000 from the state “– including $28,000 for the consulting work and $10,441 for unused vacation.”
She’s also the niece of Chicago Congressman Danny Davis.
It isn’t just in England that family connections count.
Then there was Roxanne Jackson, Whitaker’s HR director at IDPH. While pulling down $100,000 a year in this state job, Jackson found time to practice law on the side. She left the state job in October 2004… and declared bankruptcy just a few days later. She didn’t tell the Bankruptcy Court about her state job, only her private law practice.
And while her bankruptcy was still pending, she picked up a new client. Can you guess who?
Why Tony Rezko, of course! Rezko “hired Jackson in early 2005 when Chicago city officials accused Rezko and the late Jabir Herbert Muhammad of owning a phony minority-owned company that ran restaurants at O’Hare Airport.”
Oh, and there’s the millions of dollars in contracts that Jackson, as an attorney, won for private clients… with the aforementioned IDPH.
The thing with Mr. Obama is that he’s come up through this system. He came up very fast. He may not have been in the system long enough to have been tainted.
Maybe.
But some of the people he will want to bring with him to Washington are likely to be very tainted indeed.
New prediction: The Rezko angle will be explored eventually.
Curmudgeon, your comment is fascinating. It’s amazing to hear about tickets being sold on eBay for the election night rally, and that up to 1 million people could be expected.
I shall keenly watch all you say about Obama’s key staff, but I guess there’s bound to be jobs for former associates and friends.
It looks like he’ll win, though people seem to think he has a chequered past with suspect politics and religions.
You need to look at the Subprime Mortgage fiasco Ellee.
The Democrats fingerprints are all over it .
Started as a fairly good idea way back by Jimmy Carter under the Community Redevelopment Act it was then put into overdrive by Bill Clinton as an exercise in social engineering of the very worse kind.
The Democrats put through tough new additional legislation to force lenders into high risk areas .
They had no choice ( if they didnt want to be in serious trouble with the Gov ) other than to lend to more and more people who never would be able to keep up the payments.
This wasnt clever it was in fact cruel .
Im afraid that Obama was one of those as a civil rights lawyer who was right there in the middle of it all .
You also need to check out what he got out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Im afraid hes not all he tries to make out he is and theres lots that should he become president will come out .
If hed been standing here with such a track record to look into the press would have had a field day .
In fact it was the Republicans including dare I say it Bush but also very much John McCain who tried to get regulatory legislation to control Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac but it was blocked by the Democrats .
Sorry these people and Obama will only make things worse as they try to continue their misguided view of the way the world should work .
They have a mountain of money to spend on this campaign and are doing so but just maybe it will be Hubris before Nemesis .
Ellee, you said – “I shall keenly watch all you say about Obama’s key staff, but I guess there’s bound to be jobs for former associates and friends”.
Some are highlighted here:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/8339
Well we will know in a few days time. Well I hope we will and it won’t be unsettled for long as it was in 2000.
I presume he will win – he should make that lady his Vice President as she is kind to rotweillers….
Sorry, Ellee – you’ll no doubt recall my post on 23-10-06 about Obama, asking if he would be the next U.S. president.
Is he the Blair of the USA ? Promising style and ‘change’.
I’m not encouraged either by Bill Clinton’s (the founder of the credit crunch) support of him.
Judging by this email from a friend in the US I think Obama probably IS the new Blair:
As of November 5, 2008, when President Obama is officially elected into office, our company will instill a few new policies which are in keeping with his new, inspiring issues of change and fairness:
1. All salespeople will be pooling their sales and bonuses into a common pool that will be divided equally between all of you. This will serve to give those of you who are underachieving a “fair shake.”
2. All low level workers will be pooling their wages, including overtime, into a common pool, dividing it equally amongst yourselves. This will help those who are “too busy for overtime” to reap the rewards from those who have more spare time and can work extra hours.
3. All top management will now be referred to as “the government.” We will not participate in this “pooling” experience because the law doesn’t apply to us.
4. The “government” will give eloquent speeches to all employees every week, encouraging it’s workers to continue to work hard “for the good of all.”
5. The employees will be thrilled with these new policies because it’s “good to spread the wealth.” Those of you who have underachieved will finally get an opportunity; those of you who have worked hard and had success will feel more “patriotic.”
6. The last few people who were hired should clean out their desks. Don’t feel bad, though, because President Obama will give you free healthcare, free handouts, free oil for heating your home, free foodstamps, and he’ll let you stay in your home for as long as you want even if you can’t pay your mortgage. If you appeal directly to our democratic congress, you might even get a free flatscreen TV and a coupon for free haircuts (shouldn’t all Americans be entitled to nice looking hair?) !!!
If for any reason you are not happy with the new policies, you may want to rethink your vote on November 4th.
I’d be voting for anyone but Sarah Palin – the prospect of that finger on the nuclear button is just too scary!
Sky News this morning was reporting how Obama has it in the bag, that McCain’s campaign team is struggling. It’s totally fascinating.
Hi James, good to hear from you, and no, I had no idea about your early Obama blog post. I knew I was leaving myself wide open with my statement, but was hoping that bloggers would confirm this one way or the other. I would be interested to read your post and the comments if you could forward it.
Why mention colour at all, Ellee ?
Kevin, because it’s a fact and it could sway some voters. It will be an historic moment for that reason.
Well I will be glad when it’s all over to be honest. Of course it’s important and could be History but it’s dominated our news for so long now.
So exciting that America could have not just a black but a better president in just two days time. In my house we have been glued to this race – the atmosphere on election night is going to be electric but I’d definitely stay at home and watch it from my sofa!
[…] besides being one of the happy, is also the one who is checking up on her fellow bloggers’ predictive skills, as she reviews who was more right about the outcome, and those who were, shall we say, not exactly […]