It’s more like September than November today. There is no thick morning mist across the flat Fenland landscape, and no need to wrap up in scarves and gloves. People are still going out in tee-shirts, and even shorts. 
Normally around Bonfire Night, you can see your breath in the cold, damp air when you blow out, but it’s still too warm for that.
Yet many people I know have had colds, sore throats and been ill. My son’s football match was cancelled this week because some of the players were struck with swine flu, and staff have been signed off sick with this illness where my husband works, staff he works closely with.
I am hoping that swine flu will not come to the Seymour house, particularly as I am attending the prestigious Infection 2009 conference next week which will focus on superbugs, pandemics and epidemics, bugs of all kinds – MRSA, bluetongue, C difficile, HIV and TB, as well as swine flu.
One of the papers I read in the conference handbook was about the effect of global warming on increased frequency of pandemic flu in winter, by Mahmood Hachin, from the United Arab Emirates.
His study compared the annual temperature records in winter to find out the pattern of change in climate that predispose a pandemic flu and correlate those changes with the three most known flu pandemics in 1918, 1957 and 1968.
His results showed that the three major pandemics were associated with increased 
temperature in winter season compared to the year before the pandemic.
This led to him concluding that global warming is a major factor for pandemic flu when the winter season temperature is higher than that of a previous year, and the atmosphere becomes more favourable for pandemic. This is in contrast to the popular belief that colder winters lead to more cases of flu.
The writing is clearly on the wall. What we don’t know is the extent this pandemic will reach, and I expect that hospitals are preparing themselves for the worst, with most pandemics starting in December, January and February. But whenever it happens, the chances are it will still cause chaos.
*I am delighted that BBC Newsround is coming to film a programme about young people and infections. I was given their contact details via Twitter by a BBC journalist after a request I made, so it really works. Our conference hashtag is #infection2009.
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I’ve always thought that warmer than usual weather does tend to bring out the germs; glad to see research that confirms my suspicions… for once. But we’ve often said that a good cold snap is necessary to stop the spread of flu around here… and our flu season is usually in February.
This year, we in the States are also having more flu than usual, some of it certainly that H1N1 variety. But — in Chicago, at least — we can’t blame warmer temperatures. We’ve had a record-setting cool, damp summer and a cooler, damper fall. We had the first October here in at least 30 years where the temperature failed to reach 70 F even once. I can tell you how cold it’s been sitting in the rain and cold on Friday nights watching my Youngest Son’s football games (our football, not yours, though I understand we’re trying to export it — again).
It’s the cold, damp weather that sparked our flu outbreaks — though, this weekend looks like it may be the first nice one in a long time.
I’m happy to believe that warm winters can aid pandemics, but what has this to do with global warming? Obviously since 1918 some winters will have been far warmer than average; probably an equal number have probably been far colder than average. To try to blame everything that happens on global warming is ludicrous.
Global warming caused the flu pandemic? That souinds highly unlikely.
Utter rubbish!
Just get on with running your life without believing everything the BBC tells you!
Just get out there and win your money by working hard for your own immediate needs, and forget what the awful government spongers tell you. They are advised by the wrong people!
Just do it.
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I still believe the swine flu has been over-hyped. The “regular” flu still kills a lot more people every year compared to the swine flu.
It is funny how the temperature varies so much. it was cold where I live and even colder in Birmingham. So cold in fact I had to go and buy a scarf and gloves when I got there.
Scrobs, It’s the scientists I listen to, not the BBC. We may have to agree to disagree on this.
I think swine flu is over hyped and it is like other general type of flu.
Good Day Everybody,
I am the author of this abstract, I think there is misunderstanding about my notes, I didnt blame the global warming for making this new strain I just said that during the previous THREE major Pandemic 1918, 1957 and 1968, there was a awarmer than usual winter season preceeded by a very brutal and severe cold winters and as a conclusions warmer climate will favour the spread, thats all what I said, Even if some of the people who replied were not able to accept the note, one day we will all sit and discuss this friendly
Hi Mahmood, it’s really good to hear from you. This was my interpretation of your study because this winter is so unusually mild. I don’t blame climate change for causing this strain, just that the conditions are favourable for possibly another pandemic as it is certainly much warmer than last winter – so far!
Thank you Ellee…
When the winter is colder, the movement of people is restricted but warmer weather cuase more outdoor activities that make more people at risk of infection…and at the end we are trying to find out what is really going on..we may do mistakes but the important thing that we keep trying to find out what is happening…keep the good work respectful lady in making people more aware of thier lives
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