Ellee Seymour

I believe I was the first political blogger in the UK to write about Barack Obama back in January 2007. Who could have guessed then that he would sensationally snatch the Democrat presidential nomination from Hillary Clinton, and is now only days from possibly being America’s first black president.

I asked then if he could end up in the White House, and I’ve asked the same question again today because it is hard to predict if he really has it in his lap, or whether voters will swing away from Obama and play the race card.

Also, when will we Brits have our first black Prime Minister?

Commenters on my blog in 2007 doubted that the Democrats or Obama would succeed. I thought it would be interesting to recap on those views. And I wonder what those bloggers think now:

Tim Roll-Pickering: He could do better than Hilary Clinton - yet another New England liberal isn’t going to make the breakthrough in regional polaristion that the Democrats need to make to win the White House. But does Obama really have what it takes to appeal to somewhere in the South, the Mountains and the Great Plains to win over the states needed?

cityunslicker: The Democrats are very unlikely to be able  to beat Guliani or McCain in the next race, no matter how it looks now. I for one am pleased, as their protectionist agenda is the last thing a faltering economy will need.

Istanbul Tory: Obama is a media creation, portrayed as the second coming of Lincoln and John F Kennedy. He does not exist. He is a one term senator with no accomplishments to speak of. He has established himself as a left of centre politician in a country which isn’t left of centre. Anyone who thinks Obama would be able to win a presidential election is living in a politically correct fantasyland. Hopefully the Dems will pick a contender (even Hilary the Ice-Woman) and not a light-weight media celebrity.Even a wooden eco-warrior like Al Gore would be preferable to a man who  hasn’t got a clue…Britain has learned to its cost what happens when you get the latter as leader.

All in all, Obama has the tone and substance of a Blair…the prosecution rests.

If the Democrats want to win, they should pick a moderate from the South, probably someone with a military background. Not Hilary not Obama. Despite his age, I think John Mccain will be elected president in 2008. Personally, I would prefer to see Rudy Giuliani in the Oval Office…but the republican base and party grass roots are not keen on him. Alas.

Welshcakes Limoncello: I’d not heard of him before so thanks, Ellee. I can’t see them voting for this man but it will be interesting, that’s for sure! I think it’s time for a woman president but I can’t bear the thought of the smug smirk on Bill’s face if he gets back into the White House as consort or whatever the term is.

The Curmudgeon: Obama is a Chicago guy. Hillary grew up in Park Ridge, just outside Chicago. Right now, Obamamania is sweeping the City and the media here has practically acclaimed him the winner without any need for an election.

He’ll certainly be the darling of the ABC crowd (Anybody But Clinton) when he does go national — but can he survive the scrutiny? The mud-slinging? Hillary believes it’s her turn.

And I know the media is ga-ga over the idea of a “black” president. Let me ask you a different question: Can America elect a president from the North?

Think on it: Although the Bush family hails from Connecticut (and still summers in Maine), Bush pater et fils are Texans. Clinton — Arkansas. Carter — Georgia.

You have to go back to Ronald Reagan of California to find a candidate from a state that stayed loyal to the Union in the Civil War beating a southerner. But Southern California is hardly the frozen North (the present frost damage to the citrus crops notwithstanding).

Before Reagan, there was Richard Nixon — who was practicing law in New York after losing the gubernatorial race in California in 1962. But he scampered back to sunny California as the nominee — and his opponent in 1968 was Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota. In 1972 it was George McGovern of South Dakota. And of course there was Nixon’s (pretty overtly racist) “Southern Strategy).

Before Nixon — LBJ of Texas.

You have to go back to John Fitzgerald Kennedy of Massachusetts to find our last truly ‘Northern’ president. (Gerald Ford doesn’t count; although from Michigan, he was never elected.)

I met Obama once; I have nothing bad to say about him — although there is the Tony Rezko angle still to be fully explored. My wife thinks he sounds too good to be true. But when was the last time we could say that with a straight face about anyone?

Jim: He must be in with a chance if he opposed the war from the outset, unless there are some dramatic improvements  in the Iraq situation.

Unless the electors confuse his name with Osama.

Lee: I  doubt very much that Obama will make it to the White House…this time around, anyway. I also doubt Hillary Clinton will be setting up home there again, either. I don’t believe the American people want another Clinton in the White House…and, what would she do with Bill, if this did occur?

James.R.Skinner: I’m not so sure Ellee. I’m currently studying in america at the moment, and majority of people claim there will be a female president before a black president. Will be interesting to see the results though.

Tejus Ramakrishnan: Yet I wonder.. Is Mr.Obama popular for the deeds he has accomplished or is it merely that he happens to be of African American Descent and in this politically correct day and age that seems to be a qualification by itself.. but again I am not familiar with Mr. Obama or his politics entirely..

antonio: hey people… as a foreigner who feels (like 95% of foreigners) that the US is making the world a racist and money-minded (oil minded) and dangerous world I would love to see Obama in the white house… not only does he represents the best option for the US but also the best possible american president for the rest of the world… ask anyone outside the US and NO… no one wants the world to be trethened by another Republican president.. we really wish you americans to embrace peace and idealism not war and racism…

I just pray Good helps the rest of the world by bringing Obama to the white house

BBC bosses could not ignore the one story which has this week hijacked all major global news stories in the British media - the  revolting Brand-Ross prank call.

It displaced the credit crunch, the Peter Mandelson/George  Osborne Corfu scandal and , as well as the looming American presidential elections, from the front pages of our national newspapers. It caused a national outrage.

The unprecedented furore which ensued led to the resignation of Russell Brand  - already suspended, along with Jonathan Ross, the £18 million highest paid star in BBC history, who apologised for his "juvenile and thoughtless remarks" in phone calls which the two entertainers made to Fawlty Towers actor Andrew Sachs.

They involved lurid sexual comments about Sachs’ granddaughter Georgina Baillie, Brand’s former lover, which the two irresponsible men left on Sach’s answerphone, and was later played on Brand’s Radio 2 programme for millions of listeners. The content can be read here.

And boy, did the listeners complain;  27,000 of them voiced their outrage. Yet amazingly, the prerecorded show was passed by a senior BBC executive as fit to broadcast three days before it went out on air.

My guess is that the producer went along with it because it was too close to deadline, he didn’t want the inconvenience of scrapping it all and starting again from scratch. He also totally misinterpreted its viewers’ strong reaction. And, of course, Brand and Ross thought they were God and could get away with anything.

Sorry guys, but this cheap joke is going to cost you dear. It’s time you showed respect to women too, as well as your listeners.

So Wossy,, as a father of two daughters, how would you like it if this gag had been played on you? Would you be laughing?

It might now be pay back time for Wossy, who once boasted he was ‘worth 1,000 BBC journalists’ after a wave of mass redundancies had been announced. What goes round, comes round, and the BBC can employ a few more journalists….

But now, it’s surely time to focus on other important matters of the day which will affect all our lives.

Have you ever sought a second medical opinion? This story in The Mail describes how seeking a second opinion saved the lives of patients who were incorrectly diagnosed, including a woman whose mouth cancer was dismissed as post-natal depression, while a patient with a brain tumour was thought to have a virus.

It is worrying reading. But on the whole, our doctors do their best, and we have to rely on their professional judgement. But what if they are wrong, as sometimes can be case, or struggling to make a correct diagnosis?

I have had personal experience of this which is why I strongly recommend seeking a second opinion too if you have strong concerns about a medical diagnosis. I had to do that when David was in agonising pain after his jawbone swelled. Because he was not a text book case, even the top consultant at Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge was unable to discover what it was and how to help me. He infuriated me by repeatedly asking David if he was happy at school.

Eventually, I rang my GP in tears after David had been referred for cognitive therapy to help him cope with his terrible pain, yet anyone could see his jawbone was hideously protruding.

My GP told me she had no idea where to send David as his case was so unusual. I could only think of Great Ormond Street Hosptial, the best children’s hospital in the country, and she agreed.

It was the best thing I ever did and David was, for the first time, given a nuclear scan which identified his "hot spots" and chronic osteomyelitis. He had fantastic care and treatment. I thanked them for believing us.

David is now virtually recovered, thankfully avoiding any need for major surgery. His last outbreak of pain was last Easter.

If we hadn’t been referred to GOS, I have no idea what the outcome would have been.

So please, do not hesitate if your instincts tell you something is wrong. The chances are, you are right.

The world is full of past injustices, but can they be put right centuries later by our present politicians?

Norwich North MP Ian Gibson is today leading a debate in the House of Commons hoping to overturn the conviction of Norfolk hero Robert Kett, who was executed for treason in 1549 after fighting off the advances of a royal army with his 16,000 men.

It happened because the men were starving. During the Tudor period, large numbers of farmers changed from growing crops to raising sheep. This involved enclosing arable land and turning it into pasture for sheep.

Sheep farming became so profitable that large landowners began to enclose common land. For hundreds of years this land had been used by all the people who lived in the village. Many people became furious about this and began tearing down the hedges that had been used to enclose the common land; they had, in effect, been left to starve as they had no land of their own.

Kett and his angry men marched to Norwich, but the mayor  refused to let Kett’s army enter the city. However, Kett and his men, armed with spears, swords and pitchforks, successfully stormed the city walls. The government was shocked when it heard that Kett and his rebels controlled the second largest city in England.

Eventually, Kett was captured and executed for treason. Now Ian Gibson is hoping that he can help overturn this conviction by 7 December - the anniversary of Robert’s and his brother William’s death.

He says that Kett is recognised today as a “courageous leader” in a struggle for better conditions for the poor, and the government should recognise this too.

“I have put down this early day motion to raise awareness of the issue and I have also written to the Ministry of Justice asking them to work with us to overturn this unfair verdict of treason”

This sad story reminded me of the unfortunate Littleport Rioters whose hungry bellies caused by high bread and wheat prices led them to the gallows too, or deportation, after they stole and ran amok in the Ely area, close to where I live.

The Littleport Riots happened after the victory over Napoleon in 1816 and England was left in a very poor condition. Hundreds of people across the country were not only poor but at the point of starvation.

I am struck by the bravery and desperation of these poor souls who fought against authority as a last resort because of their hunger. Centuries later, food riots are still raging today in parts of the world, and food today is a political weapon. This story shows a map of the world where food riots have happened recently.

Can government today overturn injustices from the past 450 years when laws were different? Should the Littleport rioters, and others like them, be pardoned too? Where do you draw the line?

I thought the worst when the phone rang at 2am yesterday. I knew it wasn’t my mother as she was staying with me for the weekend. Could it be my elderly in-laws, I wondered? Or a friend in desperate need?

No, it was none of those. It was my son David ringing from Hull where he is at university to ask if we had heard about Ramos being sacked as manager of Tottenham Hotspur, his favourite team, and my husband’s too. He felt we should know this red hot news instantly, though I blearily begged to differ.

It later made me think about how this credit crunch should knock some sense into the heads of our top football clubs. How can they justify the obscene amount of money they spend on players? Is Manchester City’s striker Robinho really worth £32.5 million? How realistic is that in this day and age?

And how come Hull is joint second on the premiership table when their players cost a fraction of the others they are up against? I hope they can maintain their lead above Manchester United and Arsenal and prove that quality on the pitch does not necessarily come at the highest price.

I don’t like greedy football players and there is no way they can justify their exorbitant fees. If the rest of the country is fastening its belt, then I suggest that football clubs should show restraint too when buying players.

Btw, do you think Tottenham’s latest win after a string of humiliating defeats was just a fluke, or are they now on the way back up with Harry Redknapp as their new manager? If they had brought back former player David Ginola as their manager, I might have been tempted to trek down to White Hart Lane to lend my support as he was one of my few football heroes.

Unbelievably, James has offered to do a sponsored silence at school today to boost funds for his school prom. Four of his teachers are coughing up cash if James can keep his lips zipped all day.

This will indeed be a first, not that I believe “children should be seen and not heard.” But there is a certain novelty value in James accomplishing this personal challenge as it goes against his usually chatty nature.

Maybe he had considered this in advance, knowing that it had an irresistible “wow” factor about it, which enabled him to secure pledges totaling £100. These are people who either believe their money will be safe, or genuinely want James’s school to have a good prom.

James is taking this very seriously. He has been given an A4 size white board to communicate with teachers in class and must also stay silent over lunch hour and breaks too, otherwise he stands to forfeit his sponsorship - and he has no intention of doing that.

And yes, he has already got a date lined up. It sounds complicated, but that’s teenagers for you.

Meanwhile, over in Hull, David has passed his initiation ceremony to join the university’s highly regarded football team. They had to wear fancy dress. David hired a suit and purple shirt (suit) and went as a “pimp” - he was never that kind of boy at home - saying he looked like Kid Creole. Not sure Kid would be flattered at this comparison, but please don’t sue David, it was just a joke.

He naturally had to drink the kind of foul stuff that is not consumed for pleasure, as well as Whitesnake - a mixture of larger, cider and blackcurrant, a favourite student drink at his uni. He even mastered a winning joke on stage: “What time does Andy Murray go to bed?” Answer - “tennish”. Fairly harmful stuff, but it avoided  him facing potentially embarrassing challenges.

Penalties included doing press-ups, eating numerous Scotch eggs, drinking vile alcoholic concoctions, more jokes, press ups, Scotch eggs…

I rang David a couple of nights ago when all this was happening at around 10.30 pm and left a message on his voicemail saying that as it was late, I expected he had gone to bed. Little did I know….

P.S. James’ National Insurance number has just arrived, it makes him seem so grown up.

I bet Question Time is kicking itself for not taking up the offer of having Tony McNulty on its illustrious panel tonight. He was suggested as a last ditch replacement for the new immigration minister Phil Woolas, who was barred by Home Secretary Jacki Smith for making controversial comments about asylum and immigration.

Up until the recent reshuffle, McNulty was a Home Office minister in charge of security and policing. He would have been well qualified to speak about today’s disturbing revelations that some police forces have been miscounting serious crimes.

Some crimes that should have been classed as "grievous bodily harm with intent" were recorded as lesser crimes. As a result, overall crime and overall violent crime remain down on last year - but the official total of most serious violent crime is up by 22%. This most certainly does not establish public trust.

Labour’s hot seat will be taken by Lord Hattersley who will most likely have to defend their position on this. Iain has reminded us of his hilarious tub of lard episode. Will history repeat itself?

I shall, as always, look forward  to listening to the highly intelligent and articulate Baroness Warsi speak for Conservatives.

And I shall be all ears too for the dashing Editor of the Financial Times, Lionel Barber. He was responsible for the revival of the broadsheet pink paper and led its biggest revamp for a generation, transforming it it to win "newspaper of the year", while attracting increased sales and public appeal. He was most certainly an inspired choice.

And I’m not just saying that because they published one of my stories recently….

Fish and chip suppers have been given a boost following an announcement by the European Parliament to reform the failing 2004 cod recovery plan.

The plan was intended to help boost depleted stocks of white fish, but has been ineffective and had a ruinous effect on the fishing industry.

It meant that fishermen were forced to throw back, or discard, tonnes of healthy fish when they were abundant in catches, even though there is significant evidence to suggest climate change, and not over fishing, is the main cause of the problem.

My MEP Robert Sturdy welcomed these plans saying:

"The current system of throwing back or discarding tonnes of healthy fish from abundant stocks, at a time of food shortages, is making the EU part of the problem, not the solution.

"Large numbers of our fisherman are being put out of business and there is strong evidence to suggest that global warming is to blame for the current cod shortages, not over fishing. The new proposals will attempt to overcome this by helping both fisherman and member states to implement cod avoidance programs while reducing the amount of perfectly healthy fish our ship are forced to throw back or discard.

“I support these new efforts to end the EU’s unreasonable obsession with cod stocks, an obsession that has had calamitous effects for the fishing industry by its cuts in cod quotas in the North Sea. I hope that it will help boost the eastern region’s fishing industry through what has been particularly challenging times.”

Marrying young can work - my mother was only 16 and had  known my father a short while before their wedding in war-torn Greece.

What is tragic about Peaches Geldof is her bleak description of marriage today. The 19-year-old married three months ago in a Las Vegas chapel to musician Max Drummey, a man she had only dated for a week, having only met him the month before. She said:

"You can’t ignore divorce rates. Every friend of mine has parents who are now divorced. I didn’t go into it with Max thinking, ‘This is going to last forever,’ but I did go into it thinking, ‘I love him right now and I know that I will continue to love him for a long while."

I suspect that many young people today feel the same way as Peaches, but that they would rather not, that they would prefer to have a more optimistic view.

I feel sorry for Peaches who doesn’t have happily married role model friends around her, this might have given her more confidence about relationships.

How often do we listen to what young people like Peaches say about marriage and divorce? It sounds to me like she is being realistic, and yes, it is a tragic admission, especially as less than half marriages are doomed to fail within 10 years.

If she finds one day she needs advice on being divorced and wants to stay friends with her ex, maybe Fergie can help. She describes herself and Prince Andrew as "the happiest unmarried couple."